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OTTAWA - It appears that Canada's mainstream media is not taking the possibility of a Liberal-led coalition very seriously. John Ibbiton's recent piece in the Globe & Mail, "Subsidy sabre-rattling helps Harper create false coalition choice", is an endemic example of the general response amongst media sources. Harper’s message about the coalition, according to Ibbitson, is "all balderdash, but it will be a core conservative message none the less". Statements like these are taken as fact, without almost any critical response. Why is it that the commentator class places no stock in an opposition coalition? Fundamentally speaking, a coalition remains a major possibility for Michael Ignatieff in the next election. While projected outcomes based on current polling suggest some small shifts in seats will occur, the same electoral math that produced the failed 2008 coalition remain to this day. They will likely be replicated in a future election. Coalitions are not fundamentally illegal in any sense of the word. But they are certainly not desirable. A little known fact: the 2008 coalition of Stephane Dion and Jack Layton would have been another minority government. But instead of a minority composed of one party, unified on policy and intent, the Liberal-NDP coalition would have involved a constant negotiation between two fundamentally different political camps. Michael Ignatieff often likes to parrot the suggestion that the Liberal Party is a "progressive" party. This is not entirely true. The LPC has always had an internal struggle between a Trudeau-inspired, left wing faction and a more right wing, free market faction. The latter group enjoyed dominance in the Chretien and Martin eras, in which relatively conservative economic ideas like balanced budgets and lower taxes found a place on Ottawa’s agenda. Some of these items were taken right from the Reform Party policy book. While generally left wing in the social sense of the word, there is a small core of social-conservatives in the LPC including pro-life MP Paul Szabo. A coalition between the NDP and the Liberals would not be an easy one - the two parties do not have naturally aligning interests. While it has in the past implemented social democratic policies, the LPC is not a social democratic party. Make no mistake as well: Prime Minister Harper is correct when he suggests any coalition would involve NDP co-management of the economy. It cannot be overstated how disastrous a consequence this would be for Ottawa’s economic policy. Stephane Dion himself admitted it. At a time when he was still telling Canadians he had no interest in a coalition government, Dion hammered the NDP for having an economic platform "that is full of Monopoly money that will come from nowhere… and it will cost jobs to Canadians." That is a pretty stunning admission from a man who then tried to recruit the NDP into his government. In this one area, Mr. Dion and I agree. The NDP’s take on economic policy is not an enlightened one. From ending the corporate tax cuts that have fueled Canada’s growth, to advocating for unilateral emissions cuts that would cripple Canadian industry, there is no end to the job-killing proposals produced by the New Democratic Party. I will raise one other problem with coalition government. No, they are not inherently undemocratic. But they are strikingly dishonest. An unpopular Liberal leader was strongly rejected by the Canadian electorate. That same leader then told Canadians he would not seek a coalition. Soon after, he signed a coalition deal with a party that has never been given a federal governing mandate in Canadian history. There was no mandate for a coalition government. A voter electing a Liberal MP is not necessarily opting for a Liberal-NDP coalition with Bloc Quebecois consultation. This is true no matter what the disingenuous "I’m a part of the 62% majority" campaign tells you. No, it isn’t illegal to treat voters with contempt. But don’t be surprised when those voters respond in turn. Mr. Ignatieff continues to assert that he is not interested in a coalition, and many in media and the broader community think he is being honest. But the ink of his name remains on the contract of 2008’s failed attempt. I do not think that a coalition is entirely out of the question for the Liberal Party of Canada, and I think it is fair of Mr. Harper to warn us of it. After all, the LPC will not campaign on that possibility, but they didn’t last time either. |
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