OTTAWA - Is the Liberal party still Canada's 'natural governing party'?

Right now, at the very least, the answer would seem to be a resounding 'no'. In fact, the federal NDP is has real ambitions to replace the Liberals as the official opposition. How could this happen in just a few short years? It seems that Canadians were more eager for a viable alternative than most strategists realized.

In recent weeks, Jack Layton has even mused about his federal NDPs soon forming the official opposition. This may indeed be wishful thinking on his part, yet it is backed by frequent polling data that shows the Liberals falling ever closer to third place. While this trend is more exaggerated in terms of popular vote, seat totals are sure to fall more precipitously if this trend continues unabated.

As Ignatieff embarks on yet another Canadian tour it is more clear than ever that fewer Canadians are flocking to the Liberals' as Canada's default governing party. There are, of course, several reasons for this - but a central feature is certainly a lack of vision. This has reduced the party's ability to reach out to new Canadians, to reach out to young adults, and to retain existing Liberals.

A recent Abacus poll has also indicated that lingering memories of scandal and corruption continue to plague the federal party. It is also likely that provincial politics have played a role in the continuing difficulties of the federal party - especially in Ontario. It is a constant reality in Canada that when sitting provincial government falls out of favour, the federal party is also punished.

This does not bode well for the federal Liberals, who need to prevent any further Conservative gains in Ontario. Toronto itself recently voted overwhelmingly for a conservative-leaning mayor in Rob Ford. It looks like the horse is already out of the barn for Ignatieff - it might be time to start panicking.