OTTAWA - In order to run an election on a government scandal, you first require a government scandal.

Apparently, no one has told the Liberal Party.

We have all been reading the endless election speculation that had dominated headlines these past few weeks. Canadian punditry is out in force on the question of whether or not the polls will soon open in a federal election.

The entire prospect at the moment seems to be a dismally bleak affair. Despite the Harper government's newfound buoying in recent polls, Conservatives should not be so hungry for their long awaited majority. Beyond the well known shakiness of polls, the 43% popular approval rating has only held at that level for a few weeks time. It is all well and good to say that these were the numbers Jean Chretien won majorities with, but Jean Chretien isn’t Stephen Harper. While the Conservative Party has been able to count on higher support during election periods, they cannot roll the dice on that possibility now.

Thus, it seems to me that we are on a crash course towards an election that will produce the exact same results we had last time: another Conservative minority. There is a reason why no party wants to out themselves as the one seeking to bring down the government. Canadians know the cost of elections, and they will undoubtably punish those who are too eager to go to the polls.

The Liberal Party thinks that it has found a winning issue: the Government's ethical record. Good for them. It's clear that Michael Ignatieff will never be able to win an election based on issues. His earlier sabre rattling over the F-35 contract and corporate tax cuts were clearly not winning him political points. Polling shows most voters respect the competency of the Harper government, and its strong economic record. They may not like Stephen Harper, but they think he is a good manager. Only the most rabidly partisan Liberal or NDP supporter denies that.

In a lecture at McGill University, Ipsos Global Public Affairs CEO Darrell Bricker noted that the primary determinant of the electorate replacing an incumbent government is whether or not the voter feels a fundamental change is necessary. They determine the need for change based on economic performance.

No matter your opinion on Canada's economic performance under the Harper government, there is no denying that public opinion has overwhelmingly identified the CPC as the party of solid economic management. No other leader comes even remotely close to Stephen Harper on this issue.

Undoubtably then, the Conservative will run the next campaign on their economic credentials, and if they do so, they will win.

Since the LPC has no shot at winning an issues-based election, they believe they have identified a Harper weak point to be exploited: ethics. But the makings of a successful wedge vote require two steps: first, an issue that identifiably energizes voters, and second, an issue that will energize voters to support your party.

From both perspectives, it is clear Ignatieff is betting on the wrong horse.

None of these ethical charges are sticking. I would bet that part of the reason is because the opposition is attempting to create a scandal where, frankly, none exists.

No major ethical "scandal" under this government has harmed their support. The only such "scandal" that came close to achieving that was the 2008 prorogation crisis, which it seems the Harper government has largely recovered from.

The Bruce Carson affair, involving potentially illegal lobbying by a 66 year old former Harper advisor on behalf of his 22 year old wife (a high class escort), was reported by the Harper government itself to the RCMP. The incident itself occured after Carson left the PMO. Pending further details, there isn’t scandal to be had there.

Then there is the Bev Oda debate. Minister Oda is the Minister responsible for CIDA, Canada's international aid agency. She has been accused of misleading Parliament after altering an internal memo which recommended that CIDA fund KAIROS, an umbrella organization of multiple Christian churches in Canada. But the memo which was altered was an internal document, and it reflected the Minister's decision to deny KAIROS funding (despite the recommendation of bureaucrats below her). The Minister's decision is the decision of the agency. No scandal here either.

On it goes. Nothing that the opposition has attempted to spin as scandal even comes close.

Even if the opposition parties could manage to convince Canadian voters that scandal has occured, would the Liberals stand to benefit?

Not so, according to a new Ipsos-Reid poll. While 63% of Canadians believe that "electing a party and leader that will provide honest, open and trustworthy government" is an important election issue, 28% of Canadians would translate that belief into a vote for the Conservatives. Only 15% of voters would swing to the Liberals on ethical grounds.

This is a big strike against Michael Ignatieff and his team. The Liberals are betting that Canadians are sick of Harper's supposed ethical woes, but the opposite seems true. Ipsos CEO Darrell Bricker suggests that Canadians may still be sour about Adscam, the sponsorship scandal.  The Liberals continue to experience the stain of that dark point in their history, and as long as it remains, they will continue to be the party of unethical, corrupt government remembered from the Adscam days. To use Harper's own words, the Conservative Party continues to be Canada's "New Government".

Sorry, Mr. Ignatieff. You won't win an election on issues, and you won’t win it on ethics. The best the Liberals can hope for is to endure one more embarrassing election and replace their leader as soon as they can. Otherwise, they will continue to slump in the polls and drift further and further away from Ottawa's halls of power.