OTTAWA - Could Jack Layton be the next Prime Minister of Canada?

While I never thought I would write those words, the potential of a social democratic government in Canada creeps slowly towards us.

New Ipsos Reid polling shows that the NDP have seen a swell of support since the televised leader's debates, surging five points upwards nationally and overtaking the Liberals for second place.

According to Ipsos, that data represents the first time in 19 years that the NDP have been in second, and the first time in 20 years they have outpolled the Liberals.

I remain deeply skeptical of the findings. This is not due to any doubts of the professionalism of Ipsos Reid, but rather my interest in seeing how these numbers evolve over the last 2 weeks of the campaign. This could be a game changer, or it could be a hiccup.

But let us assume for a moment that the numbers from this latest poll translate on election day. The NDP become the Official Opposition, Jack Layton moves into Stornaway, and Stephen Harper earns his majority.

Now an alternative scenario. What if Stephen Harper returns to Ottawa with a minority, but with Jack Layton as Official Opposition Leader?

The Liberals and NDP have made promises to vote against the upcoming Conservative budget when Parliament returns. It is clear, based on signals from both opposition leaders, that they do not intend for a minority Conservative government to survive another session.

If they choose to vote against the budget, the Prime Minister will have no choice but to inform the Governor General that he cannot keep the confidence of the House. Our Governor General would then be obliged to approach the opposition parties, in descending order of size, and ask if they can form a government.

Michael Ignatieff, in a recent interview with Peter Mansbridge, talked about what his response would be if such an event occured.

"I'm prepared to talk to Mr. Layton and or Mr. Duceppe - or even Mr Harper - and say we have an issue and here's the plan that I want to put before Parliament, uh you know, this is the budget I would bring in and then we take it from there."

But if he isn’t the Opposition Leader, the Governor General won’t be talking to Iggy first. He would be obliged to go to the larger party: theoretically, this could be the NDP.

At that point, Jack Layton could do a number of things. He could attempt to negotiate an NDP-Liberal coalition with Bloc support in a similar arrangement to what we saw in 2008. He could present a budget agreeable to the Liberals and the Bloc.

The results would be the same. Jack Layton would become Prime Minister of Canada in this country's first minority NDP government.

Once again, this is all speculative. This sudden burst of support for the NDP could be only a minor bump, and it could subside in short order. But, punditry has spent weeks speculating on the potential structure of Canada's next Parliament, and now there is an elephant in the room. Used to making promises he knows he won't have to deliver, Jack Layton may now be able to implement them.

Jeffrey Simpson, national affairs columnist for the Globe & Mail, had this to say about the NDP platform: "The NDP platform seldom gets a costed look. It's a pastiche of guesses and conjectures."

That 'pastiche of guesses and conjectures' could potentially form the core of the next budget. While a Harper minority or a Harper majority remain the two most likely outcomes of May 2nd, May 3rd could prove to be more complicated. Canada might soon have a Prime Minister so left wing that Pierre Trudeau would look like a Tory in comparison. I find that possibility very disconcerting.