OTTAWA - It is a busy time in Canadian politics right now - rumblings of a coming election are being felt across the country, and much of the discussion is centred on the upcoming federal budget. The stakes, indeed, are quite high, though the possible gains remain unclear in several ways.

The recent polling data has indicated that another Conservative minority government is a clear likelihood. Generally, the opposition parties would only trigger an election when their own fortunes are running high, and as the official opposition this responsibility sits with the Liberal party. In this case, however, it seems that the Liberals may trigger an election even while their support continues to slip.

The debate right now can largely be boiled down to the Conservative's plan to lower the corporate tax rate. Is it, then, on ideological grounds that the Liberals are drawing a line in the sand? Questionable. Rather, what is clear is that with a lower corporate tax rate Liberal 'grand visions' for the country would certainly be more difficult to finance. It is hard to imagine that the Liberal party is taking an ideological stand, as their leader Michael Ignatieff has been very reluctant to articulate this. His latest 'wait and see' attitude is dangerously vague and provides very little indication of leadership from the top. Instead, the federal NDP have found themselves in a position of de facto official opposition, raising the points that the Liberals seem to timid to voice.

Though the hint of a coming election is still just that - a hint - both the NDP and the Liberals have wasted no time in targeting key ridings to start preaching the gospel. The Liberals seem focused on maintaining their existing seats, focusing their attentions on the ridings that were hotly contested in the most recent election. The NDP, meanwhile, are actually focusing on stealing some seats from both the Liberals and the Conservatives. It is not difficult to point out which of these two parties has more energy and momentum.

The Bloc has also started flexing its muscles and posturing for a stand against the budget. As usual, this is a bid to get 'something' for Quebec. This time, this 'something' is an HST payoff - just like Ontario and BC got last year. Quebec has already had a form of tax harmonization for several years, but they are looking for about $2-billion to bring their system in line with the federal model.  Gilles Duceppe has indicated that he will evaluate the budget as a whole, to see what benefits it contains for Quebeckers.  When an election is on the line, it is quite tiring to watch the Bloc continue to adhere to their familiar, extortion-like brand of politics. It is difficult to label their actions as anything else – they are trying to secure unequal privileges for their regional base at the expense of the ‘rest of Canada.’ Unfortunately, this is a demand the Conservatives might have to meet if they hope to avoid an election – after all, Quebec is an area where the Conservatives hope to improve their seat total, and thereby secure a majority.

Minority governments often find themselves between a rock and a hard place – there is rarely an easy answer to the question of whether a party should trigger an election. In fact, the triggering of an election rests just as much with the government itself as it does the opposition parties. The government itself must introduce legislation that might lead to its own defeat. Though nobody wants a needless election, we do hope that the Conservatives will stay the course on planned corporate tax cuts. This is just economic sense – there is no better way to lure investment to our country and foster job growth in the sectors that we want.

As the Liberals continue to seek an issue to campaign on, it would seem the Conservative party has already found theirs. It’s the economy, stupid! Momentum is now the most important commodity in Ottawa – as our electoral politics is now a game of inches. This would be a perfect opportunity for Stephen Harper to affirm his commitment to our economy and balanced budgets. The Conservative five-year plan to emerge from deficit has been criticized by several economists and the Parliamentary Budget Officer for being overly optimistic - the Conservatives should now revisit and strengthen their plan by reducing government spending in several areas. Lately the CBC and executive compensation have been discussed in the media – this is a perfect area to reduce spending. The same can be said for eliminating the taxpayer subsidy for federal political parties, which costs taxpayers $27-million annually.

If these issues are included in a Conservative election platform, then perhaps it would not be a wasted election.  Conservative ministers have been meeting with local and community leaders across the country, and pre-budget consultations have been held for weeks – we are certainly hopeful that the government has gotten the message. It is time to reaffirm a commitment to the fundamentals. That is something more and more Canadians would support.